Stratovolcano โข Costa Rica, Costa Rica
Unlikely in any given year
Turrialba erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 7.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~13 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2020.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
7.3%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~13y
recurrence
10.025ยฐ, -83.767ยฐ ยท Costa Rica ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
7.3%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~13y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 13 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
25 dated eruptions over ~9282 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.3โ10.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
25 dated eruptions over ~9282 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,340m
Elevation
2020
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
9 km NE of Cot, Costa Rica
1.3km deep โข 10km away
18 km NNE of รngeles, Costa Rica
18.9km deep โข 27km away
2 km NNW of รngeles, Costa Rica
72.1km deep โข 32km away
15 km E of Rรญo Segundo, Costa Rica
10.0km deep โข 50km away
2 km NNE of Palmichal, Costa Rica
70.8km deep โข 51km away
9 km W of San Marcos, Costa Rica
36.6km deep โข 56km away
3 km ESE of San Juan, Costa Rica
17.5km deep โข 57km away
14 km NNE of San Isidro, Costa Rica
10.0km deep โข 63km away
6 km S of Tejar, Costa Rica
10.0km deep โข 64km away
11 km S of Pital, Costa Rica
104.4km deep โข 65km away
7 km SSW of Tejar, Costa Rica
43.8km deep โข 66km away
17 km E of Quepos, Costa Rica
48.4km deep โข 69km away
Coordinates
10.0250ยฐN, -83.7670ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Turrialba erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Turrialba's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 7.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 13 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Turrialba's most recent known eruption was 2020 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Turrialba is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, rising to 3,340 m.
About 1,500,000 people live within 30 km of Turrialba and roughly 4,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Turrialba is located in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, at 10.025ยฐ, -83.767ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,340 m.