Volcanic field • South Iceland, Iceland
Unlikely in any given year
Vestmannaeyjar erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~37 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1973.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
2.6%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~37y
recurrence
63.420°, -20.280° · Iceland · 12 nearby earthquakes
2.6%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~37y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 37 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a volcanic field prior by how complete the record is.
10 dated eruptions over ~10023 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.5% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1.9–3.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4.
10 dated eruptions over ~10023 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
226m
Elevation
1973
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Volcanic field
Type
34 km ESE of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 43km away
22 km NNW of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 59km away
59 km ENE of Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland
10.0km deep • 61km away
63 km E of Selfoss, Iceland
10.0km deep • 67km away
14 km NNW of Hveragerði, Iceland
10.0km deep • 93km away
11 km ESE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 99km away
9 km SE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 100km away
9 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 103km away
13 km SSW of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 105km away
4 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 106km away
5 km SSW of Mosfellsbær, Iceland
10.0km deep • 106km away
3 km ESE of Garðabær, Iceland
10.0km deep • 106km away
Coordinates
63.4200°N, -20.2800°E
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Vestmannaeyjar erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Vestmannaeyjar's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 37 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Vestmannaeyjar's most recent known eruption was 1973 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Vestmannaeyjar is classified as active. It is a volcanic field in South Iceland, Iceland, rising to 226 m.
About 20,000 people live within 30 km of Vestmannaeyjar and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Vestmannaeyjar is located in South Iceland, Iceland, at 63.420°, -20.280°, with a summit elevation of 226 m.