Shield volcano โข Galรกpagos, Ecuador
Unlikely in any given year
Wolf erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~20 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2022.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.9%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~20y
recurrence
0.020ยฐ, -91.350ยฐ ยท Ecuador ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.9%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~20y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 20 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
17 dated eruptions over ~1872 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.5โ6.8% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
17 dated eruptions over ~1872 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,707m
Elevation
2022
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
90 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 47km away
72 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 48km away
86 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 57km away
81 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 58km away
59 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 60km away
66 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 61km away
64 km WNW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 90km away
35 km NNE of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 91km away
24 km N of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.4km deep โข 96km away
77 km W of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 100km away
13 km N of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 104km away
190 km NNW of Puerto Ayora, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 116km away
Coordinates
0.0200ยฐN, -91.3500ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Wolf erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Wolf's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 20 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Wolf's most recent known eruption was 2022 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Wolf is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in Galรกpagos, Ecuador, rising to 1,707 m.
Wolf is located in Galรกpagos, Ecuador, at 0.020ยฐ, -91.350ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,707 m.