Lava dome โข Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Anak Ranakah erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 8.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~12 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1987.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
8.3%
1-year
0.7%
30-day
~12y
recurrence
-8.620ยฐ, 120.520ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
8.3%
1-year probability
0.7%
30-day
~12y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 12 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a lava dome prior by how complete the record is.
8 eruptions over ~139 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.7โ14.4% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
8 eruptions over ~139 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,350m
Elevation
1987
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Lava dome
Type
14 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
165.2km deep โข 11km away
10 km S of Ruteng, Indonesia
125.7km deep โข 12km away
27 km N of Ruteng, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 30km away
40 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
179.6km deep โข 37km away
41 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
189.0km deep โข 41km away
43 km N of Ruteng, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 44km away
46 km N of Ruteng, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 47km away
47 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
20.0km deep โข 47km away
53 km S of Ruteng, Indonesia
113.3km deep โข 52km away
51 km N of Ruteng, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 53km away
52 km N of Ruteng, Indonesia
28.5km deep โข 55km away
56 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 55km away
Coordinates
-8.6200ยฐN, 120.5200ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Anak Ranakah erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Anak Ranakah's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 8.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 12 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Anak Ranakah's most recent known eruption was 1987 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Anak Ranakah is classified as active. It is a lava dome in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, rising to 2,350 m.
About 150,000 people live within 30 km of Anak Ranakah and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Anak Ranakah is located in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, at -8.620ยฐ, 120.520ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,350 m.