Volcanic field โข North Island, New Zealand
Unlikely in any given year
Auckland Field erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~40 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1400.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
2.5%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~40y
recurrence
-36.900ยฐ, 174.870ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 2 nearby earthquakes
2.5%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~40y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 40 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a volcanic field prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history (2 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 0.7โ8.3% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~4.
Sparse / largely unknown history (2 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
260m
Elevation
1400
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Volcanic field
Type
North Island of New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 111km away
North Island of New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 113km away
Coordinates
-36.9000ยฐN, 174.8700ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Auckland Field erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Auckland Field's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 40 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Auckland Field's most recent known eruption was 1400 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Auckland Field is classified as active. It is a volcanic field in North Island, New Zealand, rising to 260 m.
About 1,800,000 people live within 30 km of Auckland Field and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Auckland Field is located in North Island, New Zealand, at -36.900ยฐ, 174.870ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 260 m.