Lava dome โข Alaska, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Augustine erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 7.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~12 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2006.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
7.7%
1-year
0.7%
30-day
~12y
recurrence
59.363ยฐ, -153.430ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
7.7%
1-year probability
0.7%
30-day
~12y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 12 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a lava dome prior by how complete the record is.
22 dated eruptions over ~7426 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~7.7% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.6โ10.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
cataclysmic ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
22 dated eruptions over ~7426 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,252m
Elevation
2006
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Lava dome
Type
48 km ESE of Pedro Bay, Alaska
107.9km deep โข 36km away
74 km WSW of Nanwalek, Alaska
66.3km deep โข 39km away
56 km WNW of Nanwalek, Alaska
88.2km deep โข 45km away
Southern Alaska
101.7km deep โข 46km away
55 km E of Pedro Bay, Alaska
100.2km deep โข 46km away
48 km WNW of Nanwalek, Alaska
78.0km deep โข 50km away
66 km SE of Kokhanok, Alaska
106.6km deep โข 51km away
63 km W of Anchor Point, Alaska
104.2km deep โข 57km away
19 km ENE of Pedro Bay, Alaska
163.0km deep โข 59km away
57 km W of Anchor Point, Alaska
98.7km deep โข 61km away
50 km ENE of Pedro Bay, Alaska
143.3km deep โข 66km away
64 km WNW of Anchor Point, Alaska
117.6km deep โข 73km away
Coordinates
59.3631ยฐN, -153.4299ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Augustine erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Augustine's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 7.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 12 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Augustine's most recent known eruption was 2006 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Augustine is classified as active. It is a lava dome in Alaska, USA, rising to 1,252 m.
About 1,000 people live within 30 km of Augustine and roughly 20,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Augustine is located in Alaska, USA, at 59.363ยฐ, -153.430ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,252 m.