Stratovolcano โข Honshu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Bandai erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~23 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1888.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.3%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~23y
recurrence
37.600ยฐ, 140.073ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.3%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~23y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 23 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
14 dated eruptions over ~9338 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.1โ6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
14 dated eruptions over ~9338 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,816m
Elevation
1888
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
6 km WNW of K?riyama, Japan
99.4km deep โข 29km away
12 km ESE of Yonezawa, Japan
98.7km deep โข 34km away
12 km ENE of Nihommatsu, Japan
88.6km deep โข 44km away
7 km NNW of Hobaramachi, Japan
130.5km deep โข 50km away
20 km NNE of Kuroiso, Japan
106.0km deep โข 51km away
21 km W of Minami-Sลma, Japan
103.9km deep โข 59km away
2 km NE of Asakawa, Japan
98.5km deep โข 64km away
8 km SE of Ishikawa, Japan
36.0km deep โข 68km away
11 km SE of Ishikawa, Japan
6.4km deep โข 72km away
10 km W of Hanawa, Japan
98.7km deep โข 75km away
6 km WSW of Namie, Japan
30.7km deep โข 77km away
19 km ESE of Ishikawa, Japan
10.0km deep โข 77km away
Coordinates
37.5997ยฐN, 140.0728ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Bandai erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Bandai's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 23 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Bandai's most recent known eruption was 1888 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Bandai is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Honshu, Japan, rising to 1,816 m.
About 350,000 people live within 30 km of Bandai and roughly 2,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Bandai is located in Honshu, Japan, at 37.600ยฐ, 140.073ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,816 m.