Stratovolcano โข Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
Ceboruco erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~28 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1875.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.6%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~28y
recurrence
21.125ยฐ, -104.508ยฐ ยท Mexico
3.6%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~28y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 28 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1โ11.9% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,280m
Elevation
1875
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
Coordinates
21.1250ยฐN, -104.5080ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ceboruco erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ceboruco's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 28 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ceboruco's most recent known eruption was 1875 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ceboruco is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 2,280 m.
About 800,000 people live within 30 km of Ceboruco and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ceboruco is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 21.125ยฐ, -104.508ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,280 m.