Caldera โข Cascades, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Crater Lake (Mazama) erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~38 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was -2850.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
2.6%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~38y
recurrence
42.945ยฐ, -122.109ยฐ ยท USA
2.6%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~38y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 38 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
2 eruptions over ~5450 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 7. ~0.5% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.5โ4.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~7.
2 eruptions over ~5450 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,487m
Elevation
-2850
Last Eruption
VEI 7
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
Coordinates
42.9446ยฐN, -122.1090ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Crater Lake (Mazama) erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Crater Lake (Mazama)'s eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 38 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Crater Lake (Mazama)'s most recent known eruption was -2850 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Crater Lake (Mazama) is classified as potentially active. It is a caldera in Cascades, USA, rising to 2,487 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Crater Lake (Mazama) and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Crater Lake (Mazama) is located in Cascades, USA, at 42.945ยฐ, -122.109ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,487 m.