Tuff cone • Chiapas, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
El Chichón erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~27 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1982.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
3.6%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~27y
recurrence
17.360°, -93.228° · Mexico · 12 nearby earthquakes
3.6%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~27y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 27 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a tuff cone prior by how complete the record is.
13 dated eruptions over ~8492 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 5; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5. ~3.6% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 2.6–5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
paroxysmal · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 5; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5.
13 dated eruptions over ~8492 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,150m
Elevation
1982
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Tuff cone
Type
4 km NNE of Chulum Cárdenas, Mexico
10.0km deep • 72km away
31 km ENE of La Horqueta (Poblado Doce), Mexico
166.2km deep • 73km away
37 km NE of La Horqueta (Poblado Doce), Mexico
171.7km deep • 79km away
4 km WNW of Francisco I. Madero, Mexico
165.9km deep • 85km away
22 km WNW of Francisco I. Madero, Mexico
146.8km deep • 94km away
27 km WNW of Francisco I. Madero, Mexico
162.9km deep • 96km away
17 km NW of Emiliano Zapata, Mexico
140.0km deep • 96km away
21 km SE of La Horqueta (Poblado Doce), Mexico
144.0km deep • 98km away
21 km SSE of La Horqueta (Poblado Doce), Mexico
140.1km deep • 106km away
21 km WNW of Emiliano Zapata, Mexico
119.8km deep • 106km away
9 km NNE of Helio García Alfaro, Mexico
170.0km deep • 108km away
11 km NW of Pomposo Castellanos, Mexico
137.7km deep • 110km away
Coordinates
17.3600°N, -93.2280°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
El Chichón erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on El Chichón's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 27 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
El Chichón's most recent known eruption was 1982 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
El Chichón is classified as active. It is a tuff cone in Chiapas, Mexico, rising to 1,150 m.
About 300,000 people live within 30 km of El Chichón and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
El Chichón is located in Chiapas, Mexico, at 17.360°, -93.228°, with a summit elevation of 1,150 m.