Stratovolcano • South Iceland, Iceland
Unlikely in any given year
Eyjafjallajökull erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~44 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2010.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
2.2%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~44y
recurrence
63.630°, -19.620° · Iceland · 12 nearby earthquakes
2.2%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~44y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 44 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
5 eruptions over ~1460 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity — the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1.3–4% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4.
5 eruptions over ~1460 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,651m
Elevation
2010
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
34 km ESE of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 3km away
59 km ENE of Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland
10.0km deep • 23km away
63 km E of Selfoss, Iceland
10.0km deep • 38km away
22 km NNW of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 49km away
14 km NNW of Hveragerði, Iceland
10.0km deep • 100km away
11 km ESE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 112km away
9 km SE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 115km away
5 km SSW of Mosfellsbær, Iceland
10.0km deep • 118km away
3 km ESE of Garðabær, Iceland
10.0km deep • 120km away
9 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 121km away
4 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 122km away
2 km SE of Kópavogur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 122km away
Coordinates
63.6300°N, -19.6200°E
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Eyjafjallajökull erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Eyjafjallajökull's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 44 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Eyjafjallajökull's most recent known eruption was 2010 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Eyjafjallajökull is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in South Iceland, Iceland, rising to 1,651 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Eyjafjallajökull and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Eyjafjallajökull is located in South Iceland, Iceland, at 63.630°, -19.620°, with a summit elevation of 1,651 m.