Shield volcano โข Reykjanes, Iceland
Unlikely in any given year
Fagradalsfjall erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~24 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.1%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~24y
recurrence
63.885ยฐ, -22.261ยฐ ยท Iceland ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.1%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~24y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 24 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.2โ13.8% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~4.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
385m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
6 km SE of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 7km away
5 km NNE of Grindavรญk, Iceland
5.0km deep โข 7km away
5 km S of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 8km away
8 km ESE of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 8km away
6 km ESE of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 8km away
4 km SSE of Vogar, Iceland
5.7km deep โข 8km away
3 km SSE of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 8km away
7 km SSW of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 9km away
3 km SSE of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 9km away
5 km ESE of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 9km away
4 km ESE of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 10km away
2 km SSW of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 11km away
Coordinates
63.8853ยฐN, -22.2613ยฐE
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Fagradalsfjall erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Fagradalsfjall's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 24 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Fagradalsfjall's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Fagradalsfjall is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in Reykjanes, Iceland, rising to 385 m.
About 250,000 people live within 30 km of Fagradalsfjall and roughly 350,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Fagradalsfjall is located in Reykjanes, Iceland, at 63.885ยฐ, -22.261ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 385 m.