Shield volcano โข Galรกpagos, Ecuador
Unlikely in any given year
Fernandina erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 9.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~10 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
9.4%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~10y
recurrence
-0.370ยฐ, -91.550ยฐ ยท Ecuador ยท 11 nearby earthquakes
9.4%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~10y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 10 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
33 dated eruptions over ~1074 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.4% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 6.8โ12.9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
33 dated eruptions over ~1074 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,476m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
90 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 3km away
86 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 9km away
81 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 12km away
72 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 25km away
66 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 26km away
59 km NW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 35km away
64 km WNW of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 45km away
77 km W of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 52km away
24 km N of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.4km deep โข 80km away
35 km NNE of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 81km away
13 km N of Puerto Villamil, Ecuador
10.0km deep โข 82km away
Coordinates
-0.3700ยฐN, -91.5500ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Fernandina erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Fernandina's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 9.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 10 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Fernandina's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Fernandina is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in Galรกpagos, Ecuador, rising to 1,476 m.
Fernandina is located in Galรกpagos, Ecuador, at -0.370ยฐ, -91.550ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,476 m.