Stratovolcano โข Cascades, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Glacier Peak erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~40 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1700.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
2.5%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~40y
recurrence
48.112ยฐ, -121.114ยฐ ยท USA ยท 2 nearby earthquakes
2.5%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~40y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 40 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~5250 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.4โ4.4% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
7 eruptions over ~5250 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,213m
Elevation
1700
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
2 km S of Roosevelt, Washington
28.8km deep โข 72km away
2025 Orcas Island, Washington
15.8km deep โข 137km away
Coordinates
48.1117ยฐN, -121.1139ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Glacier Peak erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Glacier Peak's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 40 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Glacier Peak's most recent known eruption was 1700 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Glacier Peak is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Cascades, USA, rising to 3,213 m.
About 10,000 people live within 30 km of Glacier Peak and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Glacier Peak is located in Cascades, USA, at 48.112ยฐ, -121.114ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,213 m.