Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Ijen erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~21 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1999.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.6%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~21y
recurrence
-8.058ยฐ, 114.242ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.6%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~21y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 21 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
11 dated eruptions over ~2639 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.3โ6.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
11 dated eruptions over ~2639 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,799m
Elevation
1999
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
17 km NNE of Wongsorejo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 35km away
17 km S of Muncar, Indonesia
102.5km deep โข 60km away
33 km WSW of Gambiran Satu, Indonesia
104.0km deep โข 67km away
49 km NE of Panji, Indonesia
9.0km deep โข 71km away
8 km NW of Seririt, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 72km away
5 km W of Seririt, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 73km away
4 km NW of Seririt, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 74km away
36 km S of Negara, Indonesia
95.3km deep โข 78km away
43 km SSE of Muncar, Indonesia
90.2km deep โข 86km away
35 km SSE of Negara, Indonesia
101.1km deep โข 88km away
46 km SSE of Muncar, Indonesia
80.0km deep โข 89km away
32 km SE of Kalianget, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 90km away
Coordinates
-8.0580ยฐN, 114.2420ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ijen erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ijen's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 21 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ijen's most recent known eruption was 1999 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ijen is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 2,799 m.
About 1,000,000 people live within 30 km of Ijen and roughly 5,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ijen is located in Java, Indonesia, at -8.058ยฐ, 114.242ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,799 m.