Caldera โข Bonin Islands, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Ioto (Iwo Jima) erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~28 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2022.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.5%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~28y
recurrence
24.754ยฐ, 141.284ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.5%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~28y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 28 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
6 eruptions over ~480 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.9โ6.1% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 1
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
6 eruptions over ~480 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
161m
Elevation
2022
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
Volcano Islands, Japan region
196.8km deep โข 5km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
188.0km deep โข 13km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
227.5km deep โข 28km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
95.2km deep โข 31km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
144.8km deep โข 42km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
96.0km deep โข 42km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
128.9km deep โข 43km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
12.8km deep โข 44km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
139.5km deep โข 46km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
109.8km deep โข 50km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
121.7km deep โข 52km away
Volcano Islands, Japan region
137.1km deep โข 53km away
Coordinates
24.7540ยฐN, 141.2840ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ioto (Iwo Jima) erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ioto (Iwo Jima)'s eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 28 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ioto (Iwo Jima)'s most recent known eruption was 2022 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ioto (Iwo Jima) is classified as active. It is a caldera in Bonin Islands, Japan, rising to 161 m.
About 400 people live within 30 km of Ioto (Iwo Jima) and roughly 400 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ioto (Iwo Jima) is located in Bonin Islands, Japan, at 24.754ยฐ, 141.284ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 161 m.