Stratovolcano • Costa Rica, Costa Rica
Unlikely in any given year
Irazú erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 9.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~10 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1994.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
9.8%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~10y
recurrence
9.979°, -83.852° · Costa Rica · 12 nearby earthquakes
9.8%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~10y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 10 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
31 dated eruptions over ~2617 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 7.1–13.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
31 dated eruptions over ~2617 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
3,432m
Elevation
1994
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
9 km NE of Cot, Costa Rica
1.3km deep • 6km away
18 km NNE of Ángeles, Costa Rica
18.9km deep • 23km away
2 km NNW of Ángeles, Costa Rica
72.1km deep • 23km away
2 km NNE of Palmichal, Costa Rica
70.8km deep • 40km away
15 km E of Río Segundo, Costa Rica
10.0km deep • 45km away
9 km W of San Marcos, Costa Rica
36.6km deep • 46km away
3 km ESE of San Juan, Costa Rica
17.5km deep • 49km away
6 km S of Tejar, Costa Rica
10.0km deep • 54km away
7 km SSW of Tejar, Costa Rica
43.8km deep • 55km away
17 km E of Quepos, Costa Rica
48.4km deep • 61km away
11 km S of Pital, Costa Rica
104.4km deep • 61km away
14 km NNE of San Isidro, Costa Rica
10.0km deep • 61km away
Coordinates
9.9790°N, -83.8520°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Irazú erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Irazú's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 9.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 10 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Irazú's most recent known eruption was 1994 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Irazú is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, rising to 3,432 m.
About 2,000,000 people live within 30 km of Irazú and roughly 4,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Irazú is located in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, at 9.979°, -83.852°, with a summit elevation of 3,432 m.