Stratovolcano โข Honduras, Honduras
Very unlikely near-term
Isla del Tigre has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~53 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was Holocene.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
1.9%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~53y
recurrence
13.272ยฐ, -87.641ยฐ ยท Honduras ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
1.9%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~53y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 53 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 0.5โ6.4% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
783m
Elevation
Holocene
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
5 km WSW of Amapala, Honduras
175.0km deep โข 7km away
8 km W of Amapala, Honduras
175.9km deep โข 10km away
Honduras
192.6km deep โข 12km away
13 km SW of Amapala, Honduras
202.1km deep โข 13km away
Honduras
202.7km deep โข 15km away
16 km SSW of Amapala, Honduras
203.6km deep โข 15km away
14 km SE of Conchagua, El Salvador
197.0km deep โข 16km away
Honduras
10.0km deep โข 17km away
8 km ESE of Conchagua, El Salvador
15.7km deep โข 17km away
22 km S of Amapala, Honduras
158.7km deep โข 20km away
12 km SSE of Conchagua, El Salvador
172.6km deep โข 20km away
9 km SSE of Conchagua, El Salvador
10.0km deep โข 21km away
Coordinates
13.2720ยฐN, -87.6410ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Isla del Tigre has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Isla del Tigre's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 53 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Isla del Tigre's most recent known eruption was Holocene (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Isla del Tigre is classified as holocene. It is a stratovolcano in Honduras, Honduras, rising to 783 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Isla del Tigre and roughly 800,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Isla del Tigre is located in Honduras, Honduras, at 13.272ยฐ, -87.641ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 783 m.