Stratovolcano โข El Salvador, El Salvador
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Izalco in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 20.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~4 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1966.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
20.6%
1-year
1.9%
30-day
~4y
recurrence
13.813ยฐ, -89.633ยฐ ยท El Salvador ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
20.6%
1-year probability
1.9%
30-day
~4y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 4 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
53 dated eruptions over ~196 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 15.2โ27.6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
53 dated eruptions over ~196 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,952m
Elevation
1966
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
4 km N of Armenia, El Salvador
118.8km deep โข 15km away
10 km E of Acajutla, El Salvador
95.0km deep โข 26km away
7 km NW of Atiquizaya, El Salvador
10.0km deep โข 29km away
9 km SE of Comapa, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 36km away
4 km WNW of Jerez, Guatemala
11.9km deep โข 36km away
6 km SE of Comapa, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 38km away
6 km ESE of Comapa, Guatemala
8.0km deep โข 39km away
3 km NNE of San Francisco Menรฉndez, El Salvador
98.6km deep โข 41km away
28 km W of La Libertad, El Salvador
87.3km deep โข 41km away
5 km SSW of Comapa, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 43km away
13 km WSW of Acajutla, El Salvador
73.8km deep โข 44km away
El Salvador
86.1km deep โข 45km away
Coordinates
13.8130ยฐN, -89.6330ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Izalco in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Izalco's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 20.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 4 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Izalco's most recent known eruption was 1966 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Izalco is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in El Salvador, El Salvador, rising to 1,952 m.
About 800,000 people live within 30 km of Izalco and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Izalco is located in El Salvador, El Salvador, at 13.813ยฐ, -89.633ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,952 m.