Stratovolcano • Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Very unlikely near-term
Iztaccíhuatl has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~52 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was -7550.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
1.9%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~52y
recurrence
19.178°, -98.642° · Mexico · 5 nearby earthquakes
1.9%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~52y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 52 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
8 eruptions over ~8329 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.4% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity — the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1.1–3.4% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4.
8 eruptions over ~8329 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
5,230m
Elevation
-7550
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
1 km S of Matzaco, Mexico
48.0km deep • 72km away
12 km SSW of Huehuetlan el Chico, Mexico
54.0km deep • 102km away
3 km NE of Pololcingo, Mexico
65.2km deep • 124km away
3 km NNW of Xochihuehuetlán, Mexico
55.5km deep • 139km away
3 km WSW of Tulimán, Mexico
43.6km deep • 146km away
Coordinates
19.1785°N, -98.6420°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Iztaccíhuatl has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Iztaccíhuatl's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 52 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Iztaccíhuatl's most recent known eruption was -7550 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Iztaccíhuatl is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 5,230 m.
About 2,000,000 people live within 30 km of Iztaccíhuatl and roughly 25,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Iztaccíhuatl is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 19.178°, -98.642°, with a summit elevation of 5,230 m.