Caldera โข Kamchatka, Russia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Ksudach in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 12.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1907.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
12.8%
1-year
1.1%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
51.800ยฐ, 157.533ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
12.8%
1-year probability
1.1%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
45 dated eruptions over ~9550 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 9.3โ17.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
45 dated eruptions over ~9550 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,079m
Elevation
1907
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
88 km E of Ozernovskiy, Russia
90.3km deep โข 36km away
102 km E of Ozernovskiy, Russia
79.3km deep โข 40km away
120 km ENE of Ozernovskiy, Russia
70.2km deep โข 45km away
120 km ENE of Ozernovskiy, Russia
72.7km deep โข 45km away
108 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
83.2km deep โข 46km away
123 km ENE of Ozernovskiy, Russia
68.2km deep โข 49km away
105 km E of Ozernovskiy, Russia
42.3km deep โข 49km away
121 km E of Ozernovskiy, Russia
56.5km deep โข 50km away
69 km ESE of Ozernovskiy, Russia
75.0km deep โข 51km away
77 km ESE of Ozernovskiy, Russia
83.9km deep โข 55km away
104 km E of Ozernovskiy, Russia
60.8km deep โข 55km away
81 km ESE of Ozernovskiy, Russia
64.1km deep โข 55km away
Coordinates
51.8000ยฐN, 157.5330ยฐE
Region
Kamchatka and Mainland Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Ksudach in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Ksudach's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 12.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ksudach's most recent known eruption was 1907 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ksudach is classified as active. It is a caldera in Kamchatka, Russia, rising to 1,079 m.
About 1,000 people live within 30 km of Ksudach and roughly 20,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ksudach is located in Kamchatka, Russia, at 51.800ยฐ, 157.533ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,079 m.