Stratovolcano โข Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Lewotolo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~16 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2023.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.9%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~16y
recurrence
-8.272ยฐ, 123.508ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.9%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~16y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 16 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
11 eruptions over ~366 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.3โ10.4% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
11 eruptions over ~366 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,423m
Elevation
2023
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
137 km ENE of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 11km away
136 km ENE of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 12km away
130 km ENE of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 19km away
121 km E of Maumere, Indonesia
156.7km deep โข 32km away
122 km NNW of Naisano Dua, Indonesia
187.5km deep โข 35km away
122 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
181.5km deep โข 39km away
123 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
176.0km deep โข 41km away
103 km E of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 49km away
98 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
167.1km deep โข 53km away
94 km ENE of Maumere, Indonesia
173.2km deep โข 53km away
136 km NE of Maumere, Indonesia
240.0km deep โข 54km away
158 km NE of Maumere, Indonesia
251.9km deep โข 54km away
Coordinates
-8.2720ยฐN, 123.5080ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Lewotolo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Lewotolo's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 16 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Lewotolo's most recent known eruption was 2023 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Lewotolo is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, rising to 1,423 m.
About 150,000 people live within 30 km of Lewotolo and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Lewotolo is located in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, at -8.272ยฐ, 123.508ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,423 m.