Stratovolcano โข Aeolian Islands, Italy
Very unlikely near-term
Lipari has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~56 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 729.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
1.8%
1-year
0.1%
30-day
~56y
recurrence
38.483ยฐ, 14.950ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
1.8%
1-year probability
0.1%
30-day
~56y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 56 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
3 eruptions over ~7050 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1โ3.1% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
3 eruptions over ~7050 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
602m
Elevation
729
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
21 km NNE of Malfa, Italy
229.7km deep โข 29km away
31 km ENE of Canneto, Italy
216.5km deep โข 33km away
39 km W of San Nicolรฒ, Italy
188.4km deep โข 42km away
39 km WSW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 49km away
52 km NE of Santa Marina Salina, Italy
219.8km deep โข 55km away
43 km WNW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 56km away
47 km W of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 58km away
48 km W of Leni, Italy
3.0km deep โข 60km away
62 km WNW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 75km away
2 km SW of Zambrone, Italy
65.5km deep โข 91km away
31 km WSW of Amantea, Italy
204.0km deep โข 93km away
1 km SSW of Lavinaio-Monterosso, Italy
1.0km deep โข 96km away
Coordinates
38.4830ยฐN, 14.9500ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Lipari has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Lipari's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 56 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Lipari's most recent known eruption was 729 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Lipari is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Aeolian Islands, Italy, rising to 602 m.
About 80,000 people live within 30 km of Lipari and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Lipari is located in Aeolian Islands, Italy, at 38.483ยฐ, 14.950ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 602 m.