Stratovolcano โข Hokkaido, Japan
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Meakandake in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 11% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~9 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2008.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
11%
1-year
1%
30-day
~9y
recurrence
43.384ยฐ, 144.009ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
11%
1-year probability
1%
30-day
~9y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 9 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
39 dated eruptions over ~9076 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 8โ15.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
39 dated eruptions over ~9076 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,499m
Elevation
2008
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
33 km N of Shiranuka, Japan
120.1km deep โข 18km away
56 km NW of Kushiro, Japan
23.9km deep โข 19km away
53 km WNW of Kushiro, Japan
32.0km deep โข 22km away
26 km SE of Ashoro, Japan
116.7km deep โข 39km away
20 km E of Honchล, Japan
10.5km deep โข 40km away
12 km NW of Kushiro, Japan
100.0km deep โข 42km away
5 km SW of Shiranuka, Japan
119.6km deep โข 51km away
42 km E of Obihiro, Japan
134.3km deep โข 62km away
34 km SW of Kushiro, Japan
103.8km deep โข 66km away
10 km NE of Otofuke, Japan
108.4km deep โข 69km away
6 km SSE of Honchล, Japan
118.7km deep โข 74km away
33 km SSW of Kushiro, Japan
50.1km deep โข 76km away
Coordinates
43.3840ยฐN, 144.0090ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Meakandake in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Meakandake's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 11% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 9 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Meakandake's most recent known eruption was 2008 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Meakandake is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Hokkaido, Japan, rising to 1,499 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Meakandake and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Meakandake is located in Hokkaido, Japan, at 43.384ยฐ, 144.009ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,499 m.