Shield volcano โข California, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Medicine Lake erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~31 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1000.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.2%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~31y
recurrence
41.611ยฐ, -121.572ยฐ ยท USA ยท 3 nearby earthquakes
3.2%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~31y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 31 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 0.9โ10.8% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~4.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,412m
Elevation
1000
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
12 km NE of Burney, CA
15.6km deep โข 73km away
15 km NNW of Susanville, CA
6.8km deep โข 139km away
15 km NNW of Susanville, CA
5.3km deep โข 140km away
Coordinates
41.6108ยฐN, -121.5719ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Medicine Lake erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Medicine Lake's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 31 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Medicine Lake's most recent known eruption was 1000 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Medicine Lake is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in California, USA, rising to 2,412 m.
About 10,000 people live within 30 km of Medicine Lake and roughly 100,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Medicine Lake is located in California, USA, at 41.611ยฐ, -121.572ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,412 m.