Stratovolcano โข Central Andes, Peru
Unlikely in any given year
Misti erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~15 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1985.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.6%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~15y
recurrence
-16.294ยฐ, -71.409ยฐ ยท Peru ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.6%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~15y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 15 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
22 dated eruptions over ~9175 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.7โ9.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
22 dated eruptions over ~9175 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
5,822m
Elevation
1985
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
19 km NNE of Cono Norte, Peru
122.5km deep โข 16km away
21 km ENE of Chiguata, Peru
106.2km deep โข 19km away
20 km E of Chiguata, Peru
134.7km deep โข 23km away
11 km S of Pucara, Peru
137.5km deep โข 24km away
2 km SSE of Quequeรฑa, Peru
90.3km deep โข 32km away
2 km ESE of Pucara, Peru
129.6km deep โข 33km away
11 km NNE of El Triunfo ( El Cruce), Peru
113.0km deep โข 46km away
19 km SSE of Quequeรฑa, Peru
129.6km deep โข 47km away
4 km SE of El Triunfo ( El Cruce), Peru
50.5km deep โข 50km away
11 km SW of Ubinas, Peru
129.4km deep โข 55km away
11 km NW of El Triunfo ( El Cruce), Peru
100.1km deep โข 55km away
19 km WSW of Huarancante, Peru
142.0km deep โข 57km away
Coordinates
-16.2940ยฐN, -71.4090ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Misti erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Misti's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 15 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Misti's most recent known eruption was 1985 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Misti is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Central Andes, Peru, rising to 5,822 m.
About 1,500,000 people live within 30 km of Misti and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Misti is located in Central Andes, Peru, at -16.294ยฐ, -71.409ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 5,822 m.