Stratovolcano โข Cascades, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Mount Baker erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~21 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1880.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.6%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~21y
recurrence
48.777ยฐ, -121.814ยฐ ยท USA ยท 2 nearby earthquakes
4.6%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~21y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 21 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
20 dated eruptions over ~9730 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.3โ6.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
20 dated eruptions over ~9730 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,286m
Elevation
1880
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
2025 Orcas Island, Washington
15.8km deep โข 75km away
2 km S of Roosevelt, Washington
28.8km deep โข 102km away
Coordinates
48.7768ยฐN, -121.8145ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Mount Baker erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Mount Baker's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 21 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Mount Baker's most recent known eruption was 1880 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Mount Baker is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Cascades, USA, rising to 3,286 m.
About 30,000 people live within 30 km of Mount Baker and roughly 600,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Mount Baker is located in Cascades, USA, at 48.777ยฐ, -121.814ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,286 m.