Stratovolcano โข Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
Nevado de Toluca erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~23 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was -950.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.3%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~23y
recurrence
19.108ยฐ, -99.758ยฐ ยท Mexico ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.3%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~23y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 23 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.2โ14.2% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
4,680m
Elevation
-950
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
17 km NNW of Tuzantla, Mexico
4.1km deep โข 98km away
3 km NE of Pololcingo, Mexico
65.2km deep โข 99km away
Guerrero-Michoacan border region, Mexico
51.0km deep โข 125km away
11 km NNE of Santa Teresa, Mexico
59.7km deep โข 131km away
3 km WSW of Tulimรกn, Mexico
43.6km deep โข 131km away
9 km SSW of San Miguel Totolapan, Mexico
67.1km deep โข 134km away
10 km E of Zirรกndaro de los Chรกvez, Mexico
71.7km deep โข 137km away
4 km ESE of Santa Teresa, Mexico
55.5km deep โข 139km away
16 km S of El Terrero, Mexico
52.6km deep โข 140km away
12 km SSW of Huehuetlan el Chico, Mexico
54.0km deep โข 142km away
21 km S of Valle Luz, Mexico
54.8km deep โข 145km away
4 km ENE of Tlacotepec, Mexico
55.5km deep โข 146km away
Coordinates
19.1080ยฐN, -99.7580ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Nevado de Toluca erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Nevado de Toluca's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 23 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Nevado de Toluca's most recent known eruption was -950 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Nevado de Toluca is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 4,680 m.
About 2,000,000 people live within 30 km of Nevado de Toluca and roughly 25,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Nevado de Toluca is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 19.108ยฐ, -99.758ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 4,680 m.