Stratovolcano โข Northern Andes, Colombia
Unlikely in any given year
Nevado del Ruiz erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~14 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
7%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~14y
recurrence
4.892ยฐ, -75.322ยฐ ยท Colombia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
7%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~14y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 14 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
24 dated eruptions over ~8686 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.1โ9.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
24 dated eruptions over ~8686 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
5,321m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
20 km ESE of Santa Rosa de Cabal, Colombia
151.9km deep โข 19km away
11 km SSE of Murillo, Colombia
10.0km deep โข 24km away
8 km NNE of Junรญn, Colombia
10.0km deep โข 36km away
3 km NW of Neira, Colombia
110.0km deep โข 41km away
6 km WNW of Filadelfia, Colombia
126.9km deep โข 57km away
7 km E of Cartago, Colombia
65.1km deep โข 61km away
8 km NNW of Caicedonia, Colombia
159.4km deep โข 80km away
7 km S of El รguila, Colombia
128.8km deep โข 81km away
6 km W of La Celia, Colombia
126.5km deep โข 83km away
6 km WNW of La Celia, Colombia
93.1km deep โข 83km away
7 km NW of El รguila, Colombia
114.0km deep โข 85km away
5 km SE of Argelia, Colombia
114.5km deep โข 88km away
Coordinates
4.8920ยฐN, -75.3220ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Nevado del Ruiz erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Nevado del Ruiz's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 14 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Nevado del Ruiz's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Nevado del Ruiz is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Northern Andes, Colombia, rising to 5,321 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Nevado del Ruiz and roughly 5,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Nevado del Ruiz is located in Northern Andes, Colombia, at 4.892ยฐ, -75.322ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 5,321 m.