Complex volcano โข Guatemala, Guatemala
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Pacaya in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 10.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~9 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
10.3%
1-year
0.9%
30-day
~9y
recurrence
14.381ยฐ, -90.601ยฐ ยท Guatemala ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
10.3%
1-year probability
0.9%
30-day
~9y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 9 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
36 dated eruptions over ~1621 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 7.5โ14.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
36 dated eruptions over ~1621 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,552m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
9 km ESE of San Vicente Pacaya, Guatemala
188.2km deep โข 5km away
3 km SSW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 9km away
7 km NNE of Guanagazapa, Guatemala
191.2km deep โข 11km away
0 km SW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
183.6km deep โข 11km away
2 km WSW of Villa Canales, Guatemala
188.5km deep โข 11km away
4 km WSW of Amatitlรกn, Guatemala
10.0km deep โข 12km away
2 km S of Petapa, Guatemala
202.2km deep โข 12km away
5 km NW of Palรญn, Guatemala
79.1km deep โข 16km away
3 km WSW of Fraijanes, Guatemala
194.9km deep โข 16km away
6 km SW of Santa Marรญa de Jesรบs, Guatemala
5.4km deep โข 18km away
2 km SSE of Fraijanes, Guatemala
177.9km deep โข 20km away
1 km SSW of Antigua Guatemala, Guatemala
179.1km deep โข 24km away
Coordinates
14.3810ยฐN, -90.6010ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Pacaya in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Pacaya's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 10.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 9 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Pacaya's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Pacaya is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Guatemala, Guatemala, rising to 2,552 m.
About 3,000,000 people live within 30 km of Pacaya and roughly 6,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Pacaya is located in Guatemala, Guatemala, at 14.381ยฐ, -90.601ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,552 m.