Stratovolcano โข Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Paluweh erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~17 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2013.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.7%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~17y
recurrence
-8.320ยฐ, 121.708ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.7%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~17y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 17 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
10 eruptions over ~363 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.2โ10% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
10 eruptions over ~363 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
875m
Elevation
2013
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
67 km N of Ende, Indonesia
33.0km deep โข 12km away
42 km N of Ende, Indonesia
181.6km deep โข 16km away
58 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 17km away
45 km N of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 18km away
77 km NW of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 22km away
58 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
183.3km deep โข 26km away
52 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 26km away
Flores region, Indonesia
173.0km deep โข 30km away
34 km WNW of Maumere, Indonesia
205.1km deep โข 30km away
26 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
183.4km deep โข 34km away
Flores Sea
10.0km deep โข 49km away
84 km NNW of Maumere, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 53km away
Coordinates
-8.3200ยฐN, 121.7080ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Paluweh erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Paluweh's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 17 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Paluweh's most recent known eruption was 2013 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Paluweh is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, rising to 875 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Paluweh and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Paluweh is located in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, at -8.320ยฐ, 121.708ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 875 m.