Cinder cone • Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
Parícutin erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~22 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1952.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
4.4%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~22y
recurrence
19.493°, -102.251° · Mexico · 12 nearby earthquakes
4.4%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~22y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 22 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a cinder cone prior by how complete the record is.
11 dated eruptions over ~9302 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.9% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 3.2–6.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4.
11 dated eruptions over ~9302 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
2,808m
Elevation
1952
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Cinder cone
Type
5 km SW of Santa Casilda, Mexico
115.2km deep • 50km away
2 km WSW of Nueva Italia de Ruiz, Mexico
107.5km deep • 55km away
8 km ENE of Aguililla, Mexico
57.8km deep • 95km away
20 km ESE of Aguililla, Mexico
77.8km deep • 100km away
6 km SSW of Aguililla, Mexico
67.2km deep • 108km away
15 km W of Aguililla, Mexico
75.9km deep • 110km away
16 km SW of Churumuco de Morelos, Mexico
60.7km deep • 114km away
5 km N of La Higuera, Mexico
10.0km deep • 121km away
29 km SSW of Aguililla, Mexico
58.9km deep • 129km away
20 km WSW of Arteaga, Mexico
50.9km deep • 133km away
35 km SSW of Aguililla, Mexico
26.9km deep • 137km away
33 km SSE of Coalcomán de Vázquez Pallares, Mexico
27.1km deep • 140km away
Coordinates
19.4930°N, -102.2510°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Parícutin erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Parícutin's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 22 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Parícutin's most recent known eruption was 1952 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Parícutin is classified as active. It is a cinder cone in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 2,808 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Parícutin and roughly 1,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Parícutin is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 19.493°, -102.251°, with a summit elevation of 2,808 m.