Stratovolcano • Costa Rica, Costa Rica
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Poás in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 17.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~5 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
17.6%
1-year
1.6%
30-day
~5y
recurrence
10.200°, -84.233° · Costa Rica · 12 nearby earthquakes
17.6%
1-year probability
1.6%
30-day
~5y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 5 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
65 dated eruptions over ~9946 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 12.9–23.8% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle · low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
65 dated eruptions over ~9946 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
2,708m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
15 km E of Río Segundo, Costa Rica
10.0km deep • 8km away
3 km ESE of San Juan, Costa Rica
17.5km deep • 14km away
11 km S of Pital, Costa Rica
104.4km deep • 17km away
4 km NNE of Quesada, Costa Rica
117.2km deep • 26km away
2 km NNW of Ángeles, Costa Rica
72.1km deep • 28km away
18 km NNE of Ángeles, Costa Rica
18.9km deep • 29km away
2 km NNE of Palmichal, Costa Rica
70.8km deep • 38km away
12 km SW of Pocosol, Costa Rica
79.3km deep • 50km away
9 km NE of Cot, Costa Rica
1.3km deep • 54km away
6 km S of Tejar, Costa Rica
10.0km deep • 57km away
7 km SSW of Tejar, Costa Rica
43.8km deep • 59km away
13 km SW of Tejar, Costa Rica
40.7km deep • 60km away
Coordinates
10.2000°N, -84.2330°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
An eruption at Poás in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Poás's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 17.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 5 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Poás's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Poás is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, rising to 2,708 m.
About 1,000,000 people live within 30 km of Poás and roughly 4,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Poás is located in Costa Rica, Costa Rica, at 10.200°, -84.233°, with a summit elevation of 2,708 m.