Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Raung in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 23.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~4 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2021.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
23.1%
1-year
2.1%
30-day
~4y
recurrence
-8.125ยฐ, 114.042ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
23.1%
1-year probability
2.1%
30-day
~4y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 4 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
76 dated eruptions over ~439 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 17.1โ30.8% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
76 dated eruptions over ~439 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,332m
Elevation
2021
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
33 km WSW of Gambiran Satu, Indonesia
104.0km deep โข 50km away
17 km NNE of Wongsorejo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 56km away
17 km S of Muncar, Indonesia
102.5km deep โข 60km away
30 km SE of Kencong, Indonesia
29.4km deep โข 68km away
36 km S of Negara, Indonesia
95.3km deep โข 85km away
49 km NE of Panji, Indonesia
9.0km deep โข 88km away
43 km SSE of Muncar, Indonesia
90.2km deep โข 91km away
46 km SSE of Muncar, Indonesia
80.0km deep โข 92km away
8 km NW of Seririt, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 93km away
5 km W of Seririt, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 93km away
4 km NW of Seririt, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 95km away
73 km SSW of Gambiran Satu, Indonesia
35.0km deep โข 97km away
Coordinates
-8.1250ยฐN, 114.0420ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Raung in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Raung's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 23.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 4 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Raung's most recent known eruption was 2021 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Raung is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 3,332 m.
About 800,000 people live within 30 km of Raung and roughly 6,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Raung is located in Java, Indonesia, at -8.125ยฐ, 114.042ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,332 m.