Stratovolcano โข Alaska, USA
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Redoubt in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 31.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2009.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
31.7%
1-year
3.1%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
60.485ยฐ, -152.744ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
31.7%
1-year probability
3.1%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
99 dated eruptions over ~11319 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 23.8โ41.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
99 dated eruptions over ~11319 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,108m
Elevation
2009
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
70 km ENE of Port Alsworth, Alaska
148.4km deep โข 23km away
48 km NW of Ninilchik, Alaska
115.3km deep โข 28km away
47 km NW of Ninilchik, Alaska
87.8km deep โข 29km away
47 km NW of Ninilchik, Alaska
83.8km deep โข 30km away
68 km E of Port Alsworth, Alaska
139.6km deep โข 34km away
67 km E of Port Alsworth, Alaska
147.8km deep โข 36km away
43 km WNW of Happy Valley, Alaska
95.7km deep โข 49km away
44 km WNW of Nikiski, Alaska
94.7km deep โข 50km away
58 km E of Port Alsworth, Alaska
151.2km deep โข 50km away
41 km WNW of Happy Valley, Alaska
100.1km deep โข 53km away
39 km E of Port Alsworth, Alaska
188.2km deep โข 55km away
41 km W of Happy Valley, Alaska
100.0km deep โข 58km away
Coordinates
60.4852ยฐN, -152.7438ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Redoubt in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Redoubt's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 31.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Redoubt's most recent known eruption was 2009 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Redoubt is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Alaska, USA, rising to 3,108 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Redoubt and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Redoubt is located in Alaska, USA, at 60.485ยฐ, -152.744ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,108 m.