Volcanic field โข Reykjanes, Iceland
Unlikely in any given year
Reykjanes erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~14 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.9%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~14y
recurrence
63.850ยฐ, -22.567ยฐ ยท Iceland ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.9%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~14y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 14 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a volcanic field prior by how complete the record is.
24 dated eruptions over ~10025 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5โ9.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
24 dated eruptions over ~10025 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
163m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Volcanic field
Type
4 km W of Grindavรญk, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 2km away
9 km WNW of Grindavรญk, Iceland
4.4km deep โข 3km away
6 km NW of Grindavรญk, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 5km away
5 km NNE of Grindavรญk, Iceland
5.0km deep โข 9km away
7 km SSW of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 10km away
5 km SE of Reykjanesbรฆr, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 13km away
5 km S of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 14km away
2 km SSW of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 15km away
3 km WSW of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 15km away
3 km WSW of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 15km away
4 km SSE of Vogar, Iceland
5.7km deep โข 15km away
2 km WSW of Vogar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 15km away
Coordinates
63.8500ยฐN, -22.5667ยฐE
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Reykjanes erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Reykjanes's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 14 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Reykjanes's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Reykjanes is classified as active. It is a volcanic field in Reykjanes, Iceland, rising to 163 m.
About 300,000 people live within 30 km of Reykjanes and roughly 350,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Reykjanes is located in Reykjanes, Iceland, at 63.850ยฐ, -22.567ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 163 m.