Stratovolcano โข Sangihe Islands, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Ruang erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 8.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~11 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
8.4%
1-year
0.7%
30-day
~11y
recurrence
2.303ยฐ, 125.368ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
8.4%
1-year probability
0.7%
30-day
~11y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 11 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
14 eruptions over ~216 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.7โ14.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
14 eruptions over ~216 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
725m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
159 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
138.6km deep โข 62km away
140 km NE of Bitung, Indonesia
60.0km deep โข 65km away
Pulau-Pulau Sangihe, Indonesia
9.1km deep โข 65km away
162 km NE of Laikit, Laikit II (Dimembe), Indonesia
96.1km deep โข 65km away
125 km NE of Bitung, Indonesia
78.8km deep โข 69km away
80 km N of Manado, Indonesia
205.9km deep โข 71km away
Molucca Sea
104.2km deep โข 76km away
105 km ENE of Laikit, Laikit II (Dimembe), Indonesia
56.4km deep โข 79km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
40.0km deep โข 81km away
91 km ENE of Bitung, Indonesia
11.4km deep โข 82km away
179 km NNE of Bitung, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 83km away
101 km ENE of Bitung, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 84km away
Coordinates
2.3030ยฐN, 125.3680ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ruang erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ruang's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 8.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 11 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ruang's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ruang is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sangihe Islands, Indonesia, rising to 725 m.
About 40,000 people live within 30 km of Ruang and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ruang is located in Sangihe Islands, Indonesia, at 2.303ยฐ, 125.368ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 725 m.