Shield volcano • Veracruz, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
San Martín Tuxtla erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~27 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1793.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
3.7%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~27y
recurrence
18.558°, -95.200° · Mexico · 12 nearby earthquakes
3.7%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~27y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 27 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
16 dated eruptions over ~5236 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 2.6–5.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4.
16 dated eruptions over ~5236 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,650m
Elevation
1793
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
Veracruz, Mexico
109.9km deep • 45km away
4 km N of Juan Rodríguez Clara, Mexico
59.6km deep • 62km away
5 km WNW of Colonia Lealtad, Mexico
23.4km deep • 69km away
1 km NNW of Dehesa, Mexico
121.5km deep • 70km away
13 km ENE of San Juan Volador, Mexico
10.0km deep • 77km away
9 km ENE of Abasolo del Valle, Mexico
95.6km deep • 86km away
5 km E of Almagres, Mexico
122.5km deep • 91km away
13 km NW of El Paraíso, Mexico
106.0km deep • 104km away
8 km N of Antón Lizardo, Mexico
7.8km deep • 106km away
5 km E of La Mina, Mexico
105.9km deep • 110km away
9 km E of Hidalgotitlán, Mexico
160.1km deep • 112km away
9 km ENE of Venustiano Carranza (Peña Blanca), Mexico
142.1km deep • 114km away
Coordinates
18.5580°N, -95.2000°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
San Martín Tuxtla erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on San Martín Tuxtla's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 27 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
San Martín Tuxtla's most recent known eruption was 1793 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
San Martín Tuxtla is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in Veracruz, Mexico, rising to 1,650 m.
About 600,000 people live within 30 km of San Martín Tuxtla and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
San Martín Tuxtla is located in Veracruz, Mexico, at 18.558°, -95.200°, with a summit elevation of 1,650 m.