Complex volcano โข Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Sirung in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 10.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~9 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2012.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
10.9%
1-year
0.9%
30-day
~9y
recurrence
-8.508ยฐ, 124.130ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
10.9%
1-year probability
0.9%
30-day
~9y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 9 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
14 eruptions over ~169 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 6.2โ18.8% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
14 eruptions over ~169 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
862m
Elevation
2012
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
76 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
10.0km deep โข 12km away
98 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
167.1km deep โข 21km away
60 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
125.8km deep โข 21km away
59 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
105.3km deep โข 27km away
52 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
114.2km deep โข 29km away
50 km NNW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
101.1km deep โข 33km away
78 km NW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
99.8km deep โข 33km away
53 km NW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
116.7km deep โข 34km away
75 km NW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
112.9km deep โข 34km away
55 km NW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
110.2km deep โข 38km away
48 km NW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
97.4km deep โข 38km away
46 km N of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste
97.4km deep โข 40km away
Coordinates
-8.5080ยฐN, 124.1300ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Sirung in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Sirung's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 10.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 9 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Sirung's most recent known eruption was 2012 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Sirung is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, rising to 862 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Sirung and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Sirung is located in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, at -8.508ยฐ, 124.130ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 862 m.