Stratovolcano โข Alaska, USA
Unlikely in any given year
Spurr erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~38 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1992.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
2.6%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~38y
recurrence
61.299ยฐ, -152.254ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
2.6%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~38y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 38 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~8042 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~2.6% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.5โ4.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
cataclysmic ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
7 eruptions over ~8042 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,374m
Elevation
1992
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
57 km NW of Beluga, Alaska
99.0km deep โข 24km away
58 km W of Tyonek, Alaska
112.6km deep โข 26km away
20 km WNW of Tyonek, Alaska
90.5km deep โข 45km away
11 km WNW of Beluga, Alaska
81.3km deep โข 54km away
32 km WNW of Nikiski, Alaska
81.2km deep โข 57km away
44 km WNW of Nikiski, Alaska
94.7km deep โข 57km away
Southern Alaska
16.1km deep โข 66km away
14 km WNW of Point Possession, Alaska
68.5km deep โข 79km away
52 km W of Skwentna, Alaska
141.9km deep โข 79km away
Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
55.5km deep โข 84km away
14 km SE of Skwentna, Alaska
66.5km deep โข 84km away
12 km WNW of Susitna, Alaska
69.4km deep โข 85km away
Coordinates
61.2989ยฐN, -152.2539ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Spurr erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Spurr's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 38 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Spurr's most recent known eruption was 1992 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Spurr is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Alaska, USA, rising to 3,374 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Spurr and roughly 350,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Spurr is located in Alaska, USA, at 61.299ยฐ, -152.254ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,374 m.