Stratovolcano โข Sumatra, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Talang in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 12.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2007.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
12.6%
1-year
1.1%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
-0.980ยฐ, 100.680ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
12.6%
1-year probability
1.1%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
15 eruptions over ~174 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 7.2โ21.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
15 eruptions over ~174 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,597m
Elevation
2007
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
22 km SE of Solok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 10km away
35 km S of Solok, Indonesia
97.5km deep โข 16km away
24 km ESE of Solok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 21km away
20 km NNE of Padang, Indonesia
93.1km deep โข 33km away
50 km SSE of Padang, Indonesia
73.5km deep โข 49km away
17 km NW of Padang, Indonesia
97.0km deep โข 50km away
24 km SSW of Padang, Indonesia
90.8km deep โข 51km away
67 km SSE of Padang, Indonesia
88.0km deep โข 61km away
17 km SSE of Bukittinggi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 64km away
southern Sumatra, Indonesia
93.3km deep โข 67km away
17 km NE of Pariaman, Indonesia
82.1km deep โข 75km away
48 km ESE of Sijunjung, Indonesia
206.0km deep โข 78km away
Coordinates
-0.9800ยฐN, 100.6800ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Talang in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Talang's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 12.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Talang's most recent known eruption was 2007 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Talang is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sumatra, Indonesia, rising to 2,597 m.
About 600,000 people live within 30 km of Talang and roughly 2,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Talang is located in Sumatra, Indonesia, at -0.980ยฐ, 100.680ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,597 m.