Stratovolcano โข Hokkaido, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Tokachi erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 8.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~12 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2004.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
8.3%
1-year
0.7%
30-day
~12y
recurrence
43.418ยฐ, 142.690ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
8.3%
1-year probability
0.7%
30-day
~12y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 12 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
28 dated eruptions over ~4654 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 6โ11.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
28 dated eruptions over ~4654 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,077m
Elevation
2004
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
25 km NNW of Shintoku, Japan
160.0km deep โข 15km away
29 km NE of Shimo-furano, Japan
151.9km deep โข 17km away
6 km W of Shimo-furano, Japan
166.2km deep โข 32km away
7 km SW of Shimo-furano, Japan
168.1km deep โข 33km away
35 km SSW of Shimo-furano, Japan
150.6km deep โข 56km away
10 km NE of Otofuke, Japan
108.4km deep โข 62km away
17 km SSE of Shimukappu, Japan
45.2km deep โข 66km away
Hokkaido, Japan region
159.9km deep โข 75km away
15 km SSW of Obihiro, Japan
132.3km deep โข 78km away
48 km WSW of Obihiro, Japan
90.2km deep โข 78km away
28 km ENE of Chitose, Japan
33.5km deep โข 81km away
12 km SSE of Obihiro, Japan
121.4km deep โข 82km away
Coordinates
43.4180ยฐN, 142.6900ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Tokachi erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Tokachi's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 8.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 12 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Tokachi's most recent known eruption was 2004 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Tokachi is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Hokkaido, Japan, rising to 2,077 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Tokachi and roughly 300,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Tokachi is located in Hokkaido, Japan, at 43.418ยฐ, 142.690ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,077 m.