Data ranking
Volcanoes ranked by their modeled probability of at least one eruption in the next 12 months, from our Poisson eruption-forecast model.
Entries ranked
15
#1
Aso
Updated
Live
every 30 min
| # | Name | P(1yr) | Avg recurrence | Last eruption | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AsoJapan | 39.3% | ~2 yr | 2021 | Japan |
| 2 | AsamaJapan | 39.3% | ~2 yr | 2019 | Japan |
| 3 | EtnaItaly | 39.3% | ~2 yr | 2024 | Italy |
| 4 | VillarricaChile | 38.1% | ~2 yr | 2024 | Chile |
| 5 | SemeruIndonesia | 34.2% | ~2 yr | 2024 | Indonesia |
| 6 | Mauna LoaUSA | 32.5% | ~3 yr | 2022 | USA |
| 7 | RedoubtUSA | 31.7% | ~3 yr | 2009 | USA |
| 8 | MarapiIndonesia | 31.3% | ~3 yr | 2024 | Indonesia |
| 9 | NishinoshimaJapan | 28.8% | ~3 yr | 2023 | Japan |
| 10 | ClevelandUSA | 28.7% | ~3 yr | 2024 | USA |
| 11 | KlyuchevskoyRussia | 28.4% | ~3 yr | 2024 | Russia |
| 12 | MerapiIndonesia | 28.3% | ~3 yr | 2024 | Indonesia |
| 13 | KarangetangIndonesia | 26.4% | ~3 yr | 2024 | Indonesia |
| 14 | GamalamaIndonesia | 26.3% | ~3 yr | 2018 | Indonesia |
| 15 | ShiveluchRussia | 26.2% | ~3 yr | 2024 | Russia |
Each volcano's 1-year eruption probability comes from our eruption-forecast model: the Smithsonian GVP long-run eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is, then adjusted for recency. Frequently-active volcanoes rank highest. Statistical estimate, not a prediction.
1-year eruption probability from the QuakeGlobe eruption-forecast model (GVP frequency + type prior + recency). Statistical estimate, not a prediction.
Free to cite. Link back to this live ranking:
<a href="https://publicwatch.world/earthquakes/rankings/highest-eruption-probability">Volcanoes Most Likely to Erupt This Year — QuakeGlobe</a>